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韩旭东:军演正成为一种特殊较量

2018-10-21 01:21 环球时报 韩旭东
1.80战神 “这个薪酬标准,按照北京市刚刚出台的人才引进管理办法,都够直接办落户的条件了。

  俄罗斯上周刚刚结束在俄境内9个试验场、日本海、白令海和鄂霍次克海域举行的“东方-2018”军演,那次军演号称冷战结束以来俄罗斯举行的最大规模演习,紧接着又从24日开始在黑海举行大规模军事演习,有超过1000名士兵、近10艘军舰和50多架飞机参加。俄罗斯频繁举行军演,备受国际社会关注。但实际上,最近几年,世界范围内的军演数量和频率明显增多,俄罗斯的“东方-2018”等只是其中的一个突出片段。

  从全球范围看,军演作为一种愈发常态化的现象正引起人们注意。军演数量越来越多,几乎呈直线上升趋势,这是对战争威胁所做的一种自然反应。美国近年来一直保持着一定的对外用兵频度和力度,越来越多国家感受到,美国时而发出战争威胁不可避免地导致地缘政治风险上升,有的国家甚至面对潜在的直接冲突或战争危险。冷战时期,世界主要分成两大集团,各集团内国家的安全受到集团内发挥主导作用的国家保障。但冷战后,过去的集团性对抗没有了,不少国家几乎完全依赖自身力量维护本国安全,即便是美国盟友阵营的一些国家,也面临着不断提升军备以及整体防务能力的压力。

  如此一来,越来越多国家意在通过军演展示和提高军力,以应对潜在的直接冲突或战略性的地缘政治风险,也就不奇怪了。另外,在全球化背景下,各国国家利益不断向海外拓展。越来越多国家试图通过军演、甚至是在国外的军演,来提升和展示自身对本国海外利益的保护能力。

  军演的持续性出现,还因为各国在构建自身防务能力过程中,尤为重视军队战斗力的提升,而平时提升战斗力的一个重要方法,就是为军队不断列装新的武器装备。而在当今时代,武器装备更新换代速度不断加快,因此通过军演检验武器装备性能,通过军演使新武器装备转化为战斗力,也就成为一种必然。

  提升军队战斗力、展示和检验武器性能,正成为直接冲突和战争之外各国间利益争夺与博弈的重要筹码。虽然全球化增强了各国之间的相互联系甚至依赖,但围绕国家利益的竞争并没消失,甚至变得愈发微妙和复杂。在这样的竞争中,军力仍是一些国家依赖的手段,因为即便是在和平时期,以军力为支撑进行讨价还价并最终实现妥协,还是经常发生的事。这也是冷战结束以来军演不断增多,尤其近年急剧增多的原因之一。当下的美国,其实就是以强大军事实力为支撑来实现美国政治经济战略目标的。

  在此背景下,军演未来可能会深深影响国家间关系的确立以及力量格局的形成。随着冷战结束,国际秩序与力量格局正在向新的方向转变,新秩序与新格局不断通过力量博弈和讨价还价形成。但因各国间利益融合越来越多,在既要扩展本国利益又要加强与其他国家融合的情况下,如何构建国家间关系呢?

  这就需要深入了解对方。除了通常形式下的各种双边交流和互动,军演也成为了解其他国家动态,特别是军事发展动态的一种重要手段。军演,既可以将本国战略意图传递给对方国家,也能了解对方的战略意图;既能够展示本国实力,特别是军事实力,也能了解对方相关方面的实力。正是在这种背景下,军演也成了一种常态性军事活动了。(作者是军事专家)

责编:杨阳
分享:

版权作品,未经《环球时报》书面授权,严禁转载,违者将被追究法律责任。

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